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Signs that the bull market in stocks has gone global for good are everywhere.
Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff said this week that right now "is the best moment in the global economy since the '50s."
As of Friday, more than $61 billion had flowed into the U.S. ETF industry, which would smash the monthly record set after Trump's election. And a lot of that action continues to be U.S. stock bets.
But in January there also have
been massive flows into developed markets and emerging markets equity
ETFs and traditional global mutual funds, according to preliminary
TrimTabs data for the month. Inflows of near-$30 billion into overseas
ETFs puts it on pace for the second-highest month in two-and-a-half
years. In traditional mutual funds, the roughly $15 billion into global
portfolios in January is the most since July 2015.
By many technical and sentiment indicators, all this market buying is signaling "Sell!" — whether it be a sell on stocks or a sell on bonds.
"People are just embracing risks," said Winston Chua, TrimTabs analyst.
People are also chasing performance. Last year overseas markets, both in the developed world and emerging world, did better than the S&P 500.
But wealthier investors who manage their own market money are also showing a subtle focus on valuation that's leading them to like overseas stocks, according to the results of an E-Trade Financial survey.
Ninety-one percent of investors who have more than $1 million in brokerage accounts rated the U.S. economy at an A or B in the first quarter, the highest level ever recorded by the E-Trade survey, provided exclusively to CNBC. The percentage of these investors who grade the U.S. economy at an A increased from 8 percent in the fourth quarter last year to 24 percent in January. Eighty-one percent also think the economy is healthy enough for additional Fed rate hikes, up from 67 percent in Q4 2017.
But the percentage of these investors who are bullish on U.S. stocks actually declined slightly. And these investors say they are much more likely to invest overseas this year.
Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff said this week that right now "is the best moment in the global economy since the '50s."
As of Friday, more than $61 billion had flowed into the U.S. ETF industry, which would smash the monthly record set after Trump's election. And a lot of that action continues to be U.S. stock bets.
By many technical and sentiment indicators, all this market buying is signaling "Sell!" — whether it be a sell on stocks or a sell on bonds.
"People are just embracing risks," said Winston Chua, TrimTabs analyst.
People are also chasing performance. Last year overseas markets, both in the developed world and emerging world, did better than the S&P 500.
But wealthier investors who manage their own market money are also showing a subtle focus on valuation that's leading them to like overseas stocks, according to the results of an E-Trade Financial survey.
Ninety-one percent of investors who have more than $1 million in brokerage accounts rated the U.S. economy at an A or B in the first quarter, the highest level ever recorded by the E-Trade survey, provided exclusively to CNBC. The percentage of these investors who grade the U.S. economy at an A increased from 8 percent in the fourth quarter last year to 24 percent in January. Eighty-one percent also think the economy is healthy enough for additional Fed rate hikes, up from 67 percent in Q4 2017.
But the percentage of these investors who are bullish on U.S. stocks actually declined slightly. And these investors say they are much more likely to invest overseas this year.
Last quarter just about half (51 percent) of these
investors said international markets looked attractive to them. This
quarter, 67 percent of these same million-dollar account investors told
E-Trade that overseas equities look attractive. Conversely, the
percentage of investors who said international was not attractive to
them was cut in half quarter over quarter, from 22 percent in Q4 2017 to
11 percent now.
"The opportunities overseas are primarily driven by a valuation perspective," said Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E-Trade. While overseas stocks boomed in 2017, "they didn't have the run U.S. stocks had out of the crisis," he said.
"There's performance-chasing, too, but this is a trend breaking from the post-2009 stock market run," Loewengart said. "It's reminded people there is a whole other world out there. Half of the global equity market cap is outside the U.S., and it looks more compelling on a valuation basis," he said.
"The opportunities overseas are primarily driven by a valuation perspective," said Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E-Trade. While overseas stocks boomed in 2017, "they didn't have the run U.S. stocks had out of the crisis," he said.
"There's performance-chasing, too, but this is a trend breaking from the post-2009 stock market run," Loewengart said. "It's reminded people there is a whole other world out there. Half of the global equity market cap is outside the U.S., and it looks more compelling on a valuation basis," he said.
Reference: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/26/where-investors-who-manage-their-own-millions-see-market-value-in-2018.html
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